My Oscar Picks 2009

Let's get the preliminary stuff out of the way, so the naysayers can relax back into their chairs and leave the article to those who are interested. Some truths about the Oscars:

• They certainly don't go to the best films made in the year celebrated (this is rarely, if ever, been true of the Oscars)
  
• They're getting increasingly irrelevant to everything, including box office
• They're essentially one collective act of wanking on the part of Hollywood
• I haven't had a chance to see 90% of what's nominated this year
  

So, why do we still care? I can't speak for everyone, of course, but I like the tradition of the thing, the sense of participating in a "live" event (this is as close as a non-sports person ever gets), hissing and cattily pointing out flaws in the stars' choice of clothing, the excuse for a party and the perennial thrill of attempting to outguess the Academy. I think those reasons probably hold for most people who watch the Awards.

So, without further ado, here's my list of who I think will win on Sunday night. Note that, since the Oscars have nothing whatsoever to do with which films should win, or which deserve to win, seeing the films beforehand is really not necessary. Just pay attention to the buzz and the winners of previous awards, such as the Guilds' awards, and you can almost invariably do well.

Best Actor - Mickey Rourke, for The Wrestler. (This is a safe category, as he's already won the guild awards and the Golden Globe.)
Best Director - Danny Boyle, for Slumdog Millionaire. (Boyle's cleaning up in the Guild awards, so he may be headed for a sweep.)
Best Picture - Slumdog Millionaire. (Same reason.)
Best Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger, for The Dark Knight. (This is as close to a sure thing as the Oscars will ever give you.)
Documentary Feature - Man on Wire
Best Actress - Kate Winslet for The Reader. (It's a holocaust movie, which the Academy always loves, and they do love young Kate...)
Best Supporting Actress - Marisa Tomei, for The Wrestler. (The movie has momentum, it's driven by the acting, and there are no other clear favourites, although Viola Davis is the critic's favourite.)
Animated Feature - Wall-E. (This should have been nominated for Best Picture, so it's a lock on this category.)
Screenplay, Adapted - Slumdog Millionaire (It won the Writer's Guild Award, and the movie's probably headed for a sweep.)
Screenplay, Original - Milk (Again, it won the Guild awards, and the film is too important not to be recognized somehow.)

If you're watching for the other categories, I can be of less help/entertainment. Most Academy members don't even know what they're voting for in the technical categories, and the major technical Oscars (cinematography, editing, etc.) usually go along with the winner of the Best Director or Best Picture, which in this case is probably Slumdog Millionaire.

See you on Sunday night!
Ian